Australia · RBA decision
3 November 2026: the RBA lifts the cash rate to 4.85%
The fifth rise of 2026. About +$99 a month on an example $600,000 variable loan if passed on in full.
Decision 3 November 2026 · effective 4 November 2026
At its 2–3 November meeting the Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Board raised the cash rate target by 25 basis points, from 4.60% to 4.85%. Read the statement. The RBA’s updated forecasts are in the November Statement on Monetary Policy.
This time the Board was split. Six members voted to raise the cash rate and three voted to leave it at 4.60%. In September the vote was unanimous.
It is the fifth increase this year, after rises in February, March, May and September and holds in June and August. The cash rate started 2026 at 3.60%, so it is now 1.25 percentage points higher.
Why the Board moved
In short: the RBA now expects inflation to stay high for longer than it thought in August. The statement said:
- Inflation “remains elevated” and is broadly based, and the staff forecasts for inflation have been “revised materially higher”.
- Part of that is higher fuel and other commodity prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East, and there are signs higher fuel prices are flowing into the prices of other goods and services.
- Pressure on the economy’s capacity looks “a little tighter” than earlier thought, and many firms report cost pressures and are raising prices or planning to.
- Inflation is now forecast to stay above 3 per cent for the coming year and not to reach the top of the 2–3 per cent target range until late 2027, around three quarters later than previously forecast.
- The Board sees an increasing risk that higher inflation expectations will become embedded.
On the other side, the statement said the economy is slowing, housing prices have fallen significantly and the unemployment rate has risen. The RBA expects the unemployment rate to rise by more than it forecast in August, and higher rates and falling house prices to weigh on home building and household spending.
On what comes next, the Board said it “will continue to do what it considers necessary to bring inflation sustainably back to target” and will be “attentive to the data”. That is a statement of intent, not a forecast. We do not forecast the next decision.
The variable home loan
Take an example $600,000, 30-year principal-and-interest variable loan. The RBA’s latest average outstanding owner-occupier variable rate is 6.20% for August 2026, before the September rise. With September passed on in full that is 6.45%.
A full 25-point pass-through of this rise takes the rate to 6.70% and the repayment from about $3,773 to $3,872 a month: +$99. Paid fortnightly, it is about +$46 a fortnight.
Across all five rises this year (125 basis points), the same example loan would have gone from about $3,388 to $3,872 a month, if every rise had been passed on in full.
The RBA has not yet published a newer average rate than August 2026 in Table F6, so the example still starts there. Your lender sets the timing and size of any change and will tell you in writing. See the worked maths, try your capital city, or put in your own numbers with the repayment calculator.
If your budget is tight, talk to your lender early about hardship options. The free National Debt Helpline (1800 007 007) can also help.
Savings and fixed loans
Banks set savings and term deposit rates, and many lift them after a rise, sometimes only partly or after a delay. Compare what your bank actually pays with what it advertises, and check the conditions on any bonus rate. Existing fixed-rate loans do not change until the fixed period ends.
Next meeting
The Board next meets on 7–8 December 2026. The decision is due at 2.30 pm AEDT (2.00 pm Adelaide time) on 8 December 2026. Minutes of this meeting are due about two weeks after it. We will post a plain-English note on the afternoon of the next decision.
General information only. It does not take your objectives, financial situation, or needs into account and is not financial advice. Example loans are illustrations, not quotes.
Sources: RBA media release 2026-30, 3 November 2026; RBA Statement on Monetary Policy, November 2026; RBA cash rate target table; RBA Statistical Table F6, Housing Lending Rates (series FLRHOOVA), August 2026; RBA board meeting schedules.
RBA rate board · The September 2026 decision · All Australian guides