How to read an FOMC statement

The post-meeting statement is usually a page. It is not a forecast you can trade, and it is not instructions for your refinance. It is the Committee’s public description of what it just did and how it sees the economy in a handful of stock phrases.

Read it in this order.

1. The target range

First paragraph, first decision: did they raise, cut, or hold, and by how much? On September 16, 2026 they raised the federal funds range by ¼ percentage point to 3¾ to 4 percent. That is the only number in the document that is a policy action. Everything else is description.

2. The vote

The September statement was issued on a 12–0 vote. Unanimous is information: nobody on the Committee wanted a different action badly enough to dissent. A 9–3 hold, like July 2026, is also information: three people already wanted a hike. Votes live in the statement header and, later, in the minutes.

3. The adjectives on growth, jobs, and inflation

The September text said activity is expanding at a “solid” pace, uncertainty is “elevated,” job gains have “kept pace,” unemployment has “changed little,” and inflation “remains elevated.” Those words are reused on purpose. What matters is when one of them changes — “solid” to “moderate,” “elevated” inflation to “has eased.” Do not over-read a comma.

4. The reason they gave for the action

“Today’s policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee’s 2 percent goal.” That sentence is why they hiked. It is not a promise about October.

5. What is not in the statement

The statement does not name the next move. Projections (the “dot plot”) and the chair’s press conference do that, four times a year and every meeting, respectively. Minutes arrive three weeks later. If you only read one document, read the statement for the action and the press conference for the tone.

Next scheduled meeting: October 27–28, 2026. We will post the household version the same afternoon when we can.

Example text: FOMC statement, September 16, 2026. Calendar: FOMC meeting dates.